Friday, July 10, 2009

Brown Manure, Not Green Shoots -

Brown Manure, Not Green Shoots - "Essentially, the results today suggested that there are not as many green shoots. These green shoots, as I've argued, are mostly yellow weeds that may even turn into brown manure if a double-dip, W-shaped recession occurs in 2010-11...Home prices have already fallen from their peak by about 30%. Based on my analysis, they are going to fall by at least 40% from their peak, and more likely 45%, before they bottom out. They are still falling at an annualized rate of over 18%. That fall of at least 40%-45% percent of home prices from their peak is going to imply that about half of all households that have a mortgage--about 25 million of the 51 million that have mortgages--are going to be underwater with negative equity and will have a significant incentive to walk away from their homes."
Nouriel Roubini, aka "Dr. Doom," weighs in with a hefty dose of pessimism about the latest economic statistics.

1 comment:

DBX said...

I wish it were brown manure. At least it would fertilize something.