Sunday, October 16, 2011

‘Shadow inventory’ of homes could topple real-estate recovery - Business -

‘Shadow inventory’ of homes could topple real-estate recovery - Business -
Officially, there are 3.5 million homes for sale nationwide. But there are millions more lurking in the shadows — hidden neatly away on banks’ balance sheets, stalled in foreclosure court proceedings, or simply occupied by nonpaying owners as lenders wait months or years before taking action.

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Thanks to Fred Pilot for this link. This article documents what many people in the real estate industry are talking about among themselves. I spoke with one attorney Friday who said he thinks it will be seven years before housing prices start going up and construction of new homes takes off again. Check out the map that accompanies the article. It's perfect for Halloween--Attack of the Zombie Real Estate.

1 comment:

Fred Pilot said...

With excessive mortgage credit, the housing market has basically accelerated the normal rate of growth. Most of what I've read is that 10 years of growth were packed into five (2001-2006).

So assuming a normal growth rate, one might think the residential real estate market would be back to normal in 2012 to catch up those extra five years. But it doesn't appear to be shaping up that way. Some of it likely due to a negative multiplier effect of lost jobs related to the construction and purchase of homes. That wouldn't seem to be the entire explanation, though. There is a broad based weakness and uncertainty in the economy that seems to be contributing as well. I'd appreciate others' thoughts on this.