Pew Research Center: GOP Party Identification Slips Nationwide and in Pennsylvania: "In total, the GOP has lost roughly a quarter of its base over the past five years. But these Republican losses have not translated into substantial Democratic gains."
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The story line in the major media is that Obama is Kennedy/FDR and we are watching the creation of a new Camelot. Here is yet another piece of evidence showing how far off that story line really is. This Pew poll suggests that (1) Bush destroyed the Republican Party; (2) Obama won because of retrospective voting, meaning many non-ideological voters were just desperate for a change; and (3) Obama is rapidly alienating all those non-ideological folks because...surprise! He is too far to the left for their taste. However, (4) the Republicans are clueless, leaderless, and largely driven by their litmus test conservatives, so (5) the ground is fertile for a third party movement to capture the disaffected. Ross Perot, where are you? I hope the answer is, "In Antarctica, looking for the people who plotted to disrupt my daughter's wedding, and I'll stay here until I find them!"
I am not a big fan of third parties--I'm just saying that if you look at the conditions this is a propitious time for one. The likeliest source is moderate Republicans, who seem to have no home in the party any longer, and the disaffected non-ideological voters whose numbers are increasing. Of course, if the Democrats stay unified and the Republicans lose voters to a new party, it would probably mean the Democrats remain in control.
2 comments:
The trends in the charts indicate much dissatisfaction with government and political parties.
The chart indicates that independents are now the plurality. But what are the positives that they want? Are they merely indicating dissatisfaction with the major political parties — none of the above.
What do they want, indeed? My opinion is that most independents aren't all that political. They just want things to go well for them in their private lives, and if it doesn't they vote for the other party in the next election. They want plenty of jobs, low inflation, appreciation in the value of their home, low crime, good schools, good roads and other public services, and strong national security..oh, and low taxes. :-)
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