Wednesday, January 07, 2009

California may delay tax refunds amid budget impasse - Los Angeles Times

California in deep, deep trouble : "Reporting from Sacramento -- State officials on Tuesday braced for the possibility of delaying tax refunds to millions of Californians, along with student grants and payments to vendors, as the latest round of budget negotiations between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislators collapsed.

With little more than a month's worth of cash left in the state treasury, the governor and lawmakers have been unable to agree on how to erase a budget gap projected to reach $41.6 billion by the middle of next year. Democrats announced Tuesday that two weeks of discussions had ended in an impasse and sent Schwarzenegger the $18-billion fiscal package they passed last month. The governor vetoed it, as he had promised to do."

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Fred Pilot sent this along. At $42 billion, California is deeper in the hole than any other state, but this isn't just an economic problem. I think the state may well go bankrupt because they are unable to manage their own economic affairs. Underlying the deficit is a breakdown of the political system, and underlying that are some demographic issues that may make it impossible to solve either the political or economic problems.

The middle class has been fleeing the state for some time now, headed for parts east where they get a better deal on taxes, schools, public safety, traffic, home prices, and the other things that matter to them. And the state is the preferred destination for poor people from other nations, for whom it remains a great place to live when compared with where they came from.

The demographic shifts in the state have pushed politics to the far left, except The Governator. But he won't be there forever. LA has a socialist mayor who will likely become the socialist governor pretty soon. And look at the policies that emanate from the People's Republic of San Francisco these days, where there are a million dogs but no children, unless I take mine to visit my sister.

The farmers can't leave because the land is still in that state, but if I were a landowner in the Inland Empire I'd be pushing to cut the state up into three parts and try to salvage one third. That would leave an economy that leads the world in producing movies, music, and litigation, and not much else.

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