Thursday, November 27, 2008


Inflation-adjusted U.S. house prices--graphs | Les Jones: "The graph shows the bubble taking off in 1998 and the market peaking in 2005-06. That latter date is generally considered the market peak by many sources.

Note that this graph completely contradicts the chirpy real estate agent advice that “home values always go up!” Home values tend to hold their value relative to inflation, which is no small feat. Your home also gives you a place to keep your stuff dry, which is something you can’t say about T-bills and mutual funds. However, significant appreciation relative to inflation was seen almost entirely in the housing bubble era.


We’re now in an era in which home prices are depreciating. Based on the graph above prices may have to decline an additional inflation-adjusted 15-25% to be back within historical norms."

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Take a look at these two graphs and you will see how the 1998-2005 boom and bust appear in historical context. Astounding.

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