Friday, February 13, 2009

Baseball Crank: POLITICS: Barack Obama's Gift To Conservatives

Baseball Crank: POLITICS: Barack Obama's Gift To Conservatives: "If Republicans support the Democrats' economic agenda and the economy gets better, Democrats will get all the credit.

If Republicans oppose the Democrats' economic agenda and the economy gets better, Democrats will get all the credit.

If Republicans support the Democrats' economic agenda and the economy does not get better, the two parties will share the blame.

If Republicans oppose the Democrats' economic agenda and the economy does not get better, Democrats alone will get the blame.

In other words, as a strictly political matter, the only major risk for the Democrats, and the only possible upside for Republicans, is if Republicans can distinguish themselves from what the Democrats are doing. And by taking the 'I won' approach, Obama is allowing, even compelling, moderate Republicans to do just that. The result is an opposition that is energized and sees a path to recovery, rather than one that is divided, demoralized and outmaneuvered."

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Interesting analysis of the options facing the Republicans. I look at it from an electoral politics standpoint more than the rhetorical gamesmanship.

If the Republicans can't do something fast about their standing with young voters, Hispanic voters, and Asian voters, they are going the way of the Federalists and the Whigs. In the last election they scored about 1/3 of the votes from each of those three groups. A party of old white people has no future. If the Republicans can't turn this around before the next election--and I mean 2010--the Democratic Party may split and form a new second party that will replace the Republicans.

At this point I see a Republican Party with no leadership, little idea what it stands for, in total disrepute with most of the electorate, and no idea how to connect with emerging political forces and social groups. Bush built nothing the party could use, left no political heir, created no political infrastructure for them, and left no lasting accomplishments they can take credit for.

Instead, he rode the "War on Terror" horse into the desert until it died. Then he grabbed a helicopter to a gated community in Texas, leaving his party behind in the desert, with no food or water. The Republicans should be naming toxic waste dumps after him, but most of them still speak well of him...in public.

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