Thursday, July 29, 2010

AP survey: A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011

AP survey: Economists turn more pessimistic for coming year, but most say rebound will endure

Economic growth the rest of this year and early next year will be weak -- less than 3 percent. For the April-to-June quarter, economists pegged growth at 2.8 percent. That's far below the 3.7 percent pace predicted just three months ago.

-- The unemployment rate will be no lower at the end of the year than it is now -- 9.5 percent. A majority think it will be 2015 or later before the rate falls to a historically normal 5 percent.

-- State budget shortfalls pose a "significant" or "severe" risk to the national economy. The loss of tax revenue has forced state and local governments to cut services and lay off workers.

Memo to Prof. McKenzie: The economy is indeed post recessionary based on the growth figures above. But it's no great shakes as you are noting from the trailing indicators including unemployment and state budget shortfalls.

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