Saturday, April 18, 2009

FactCheck.org: Counting Mexico's Guns

FactCheck.org: Counting Mexico's Guns: "President Obama says 90 percent of Mexico's recovered crime guns come the U.S. Not true."
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It goes beyond "not true." It is more like, "an intentional distortion."

This 90% figure is the percentage of guns Mexico asks US officials to trace that turn out to have come from the US. But Mexico only asks US officials to trace guns they recover that they already believe originated in the US because of their markings or other information. Of that sample, 90% actually did originate in the US. That is the best example of a horribly biased sample that I can imagine.

The truth is that the US government has no idea how many guns Mexican cops actually confiscate, and still less knowledge of what percentage of them originated in the US. The Mexican government doesn't know, either. Any figure is speculative.

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