Behind McCain’s Fall « The State of the Union: "In this election, as in nearly all before, a black swan has shaped the race’s trajectory: one of those unforeseeable external events that pops up in the last month or so, bearing an impact far greater than any of the daily fluctuations dissected by the punditry."
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The line chart that accompanies the blog post tells a dramatic story. The black swan is honking louder than anything else. Unless another rara avis shows up before November 3, McCain's goose is cooked, so to speak.
1 comment:
I know that correlation is not causation, but that chart is very interesting. Anything can still happen in this crazy election, but what might the next black swan be--a terrorist attack, maybe? an assassination attempt? I'm having trouble thinking of a good event significant enough to change McCain's trajectory. So I do hope we don't get another "black swan."
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