Rich Americans Are Increasingly Looking for Second Passport

Rich Americans Are Increasingly Looking for Second Passport

Having wrecked the American economy and political system by supporting policies that caused skyrocketing inequality and the erosion of the middle class, rich people are now looking for someplace else to live. 

New York coronavirus exodus fuels Maine real estate boom

New York coronavirus exodus fuels Maine real estate boom

"Prospective renters and buyers were desperate, according to brokers on the front lines. “People have called and said, ‘Get me any house in Maine,’ ” said Gwyneth Freeman of Better Homes & Gardens, The Masiello Group. A strong economy and low interest rates made 2019 a historically good year for Maine real estate, resulting in 40 percent less inventory in 2020. When frantic out-of-staters began looking to escape the pandemic, housing demand exceeded supply, pushing prices up and accounting for a large volume of closed sales."

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By gorey.

Real estate prices are about to drop 10%

Real estate prices are about to drop 10%

"The wholesale disruption of COVID-19 is taking a toll on the real estate market. A new survey suggests that offices will remain under capacity for months, retail and hospitality will continue to struggle, and, despite some increases in single-family home values, real estate across the board will see its value fall around 10% next year. These are some of the main findings of “Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2021,” a new report from the Urban Land Institute and PwC."

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I've been wondering whether or not the industry would start to get nervous about the impact of COVID on real estate markets and prices. Here's a large-scale study based on interviews with professionals that sees significant negative impacts, except perhaps in suburban residential property.

Inside the climate battle quietly raging about US homes | US news | The Guardian

Inside the climate battle quietly raging about US homes | US news | The Guardian

"On one side are the city and state officials trying to go greener, and on the other are real estate developers and the natural gas industry. The International Code Council, which like the World Series largely concerns Americans, met this week on updating the baseline codes that most states and cities adopt for new buildings. The council is reviewing about two dozen proposals that would, for example, require builders to install electrical outlets near gas stoves that may one day be replaced with electric ones; and to wire enough power to garages where people may one day want to plug in electric cars...With the stakes high, climate advocates last year launched a campaign to make sure that more climate-minded officials – the ones that set energy and environment rules, in addition to those who enforce code – were involved in the normally obscure process."

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The real estate development industry is accustomed to having veto power over major building code changes, which is why they are so freaked out over having people with more of an environmental orientation involved in making the rules.

DOJ Designates New York City as an “Anarchist Jurisdiction” – NBC New York

DOJ Designates New York City as an “Anarchist Jurisdiction” – NBC New York

"New York City is one of three places that "have permitted violence and destruction of property to persist and have refused to undertake reasonable measures to counteract criminal activities," leading to its designation as an "anarchist jurisdiction," the Justice Department said Monday. Rather than idle words, the designation has potential financial consequences. President Trump issued a memo earlier this month directing the DOJ to identify jurisdictions that, in its view, were not enforcing the law appropriately. Designated cities could lose their federal funding. Trump's order gives the director of the Office of Management and Budget 30 days to issue guidance to federal agencies on restricting eligibility for federal grants for the cities on the DOJ list. Such grants make up a huge portion of NYC's already strapped annual budget -- more than $7 billion in fiscal 2021 alone, or 7.5% of the city's projected total revenue."

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The only anarchist jurisdiction in this country today is the White House.

Placer County CA homeless people find a house in the suburbs | The Sacramento Bee

Placer County CA homeless people find a house in the suburbs | The Sacramento Bee

"As cities around the country struggle with a growing homeless population and few solutions beyond temporary homeless shelters or single-occupancy hotels, Placer County has been placing some of its homeless population on quiet suburban streets. It’s an attempt to fully integrate formerly homeless people into the community without the extreme costs of building permanent affordable housing...In interviews with The Bee, neighbors also said the existence of the home could threaten their property values, and that erratic behavior, loitering, drinking and smoking in public are unwelcome in their neighborhood.

But for the formerly homeless people who occupy the homes, they’ve found a new sense of comfort without the hassles of living in shelters, on church doorsteps, or the street."

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Thanks to Fred Pilot for this link.  This is a difficult issue for suburbanites, who tend to believe that they have moved away from social issues such as homelessness. But doing it this way is much less expensive than building new housing for the homeless: "The unique arrangement in Placer County contrasts starkly with the extraordinary per-person costs of developing new housing for homeless people in California. At the Capitol Park Hotel downtown, for example, development costs will reach more than $445,000 per unit for apartments that are tiny — about 250 square feet. With the program in Placer County, six people live in each of the four houses — purchased for about $600,000 each — a significantly lower per-person cost than new affordable housing developments."

The Fed Now Owns Nearly One Third of All US Mortgages

The Fed Now Owns Nearly One Third of All US Mortgages

"The Fed has snapped up $1 trillion of mortgage bonds since March. It bought around $300 billion of the bonds in each of March and April, and since then has been buying about $100 billion a month.  The Fed now owns almost a third of bonds backed by home loans in the U.S.  Buying the securities has pushed mortgage rates lower, with the average 30-year rate falling to 2.91% as of last week from 3.3% in early February. Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out in late March that the buying was running at eight times the pace seen in prior episodes of Fed purchasing under programs known as quantitative easing."

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Californians are buying their own fire trucks on Craigslist - SFGate

Californians are buying their own fire trucks on Craigslist - SFGate

"One seller is hoping to get $15,000 for a 53-year-old Ford 150 fire truck.  He confesses that he "was told the pump needed some seals," but suggests that "with these lightning complex fires going on, maybe you could use it." Over the last few years, as wildfires have become more common, there has also been a rise in a small but growing number of wealthy residents hiring private firefighting crews to watch over their acres. Cal Fire has discouraged attempts to defend one's own property during an evacuation order. “People don’t understand the veracity of these fires that we’ve been dealing with the last five or so years,” Cal Fire Fire Captain Scott McLean told SFGATE. “They’re very unpredictable and you can’t project what the fire’s going to do.”

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The ultimate in privatization. You buy your own fire truck and hire your own firefighting crew.

San Francisco Real Estate - Complicated Market Conditions - Compass

San Francisco Real Estate - Complicated Market Conditions - Compass

"As illustrated below, the San Francisco market currently reflects a variety of both positive and negative indicators. Among Bay Area markets, the city is seeing the softest recovery from the initial shelter-in-place plunge in activity in early spring, while some other counties - less expensive, more suburban or rural - are experiencing extremely high demand. (See table near the end of this report.)  Within San Francisco itself, supply and demand conditions have diverged dramatically between house and condo markets, with the latter being far weaker and rapidly climbing into "buyer's market" territory."

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Here is the report that the article I linked to below was based on.  The market for condos is showing signs of weakness, which always seems to happen when a downturn in the real estate market begins. Condos are hit first. Does that mean that other parts of the real estate market will go down? Not necessarily, but we shall see. Some analysts think the suburban market for single family homes will benefit from the forces that are hurting the condo market. COVID, unemployment, civil unrest...

SF condo inventory spikes, with price reductions skyrocketing

SF condo inventory spikes, with price reductions skyrocketing

"As buyers become pickier and shelter in place orders exacerbate the need for private outdoor space, the San Francisco condo market has been beset by rising inventory and declining prices, according to new data compiled by Compass. The young people who would have been shopping for condos may be more likely to be impacted by layoffs, according to the report. There's also increasing demand outside of the city, with those staying showing a vast preference for single-family homes, which have not seen the same level of declining demand. "Within San Francisco itself, supply and demand conditions have diverged dramatically between house and condo markets, with the latter being far weaker and rapidly climbing into 'buyer's market' territory," according to the report."

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Another data point supporting the notion that demand for center city real estate is beginning to drop, while demand for housing in the suburbs is going up.

Late-Stage Delinquencies are Surging, Especially Those With FHA Loans

Late-Stage Delinquencies are Surging, Especially Those With FHA Loans

"The overall rate of loans 30 or more days past due increased during the second quarter to a seasonally adjusted 8.22 percent of all outstanding one-to-four-unit mortgages. This was up 386 basis points (bps) from the first quarter of the year and 369 bps year-over-year. MBA includes loans in forbearance in its delinquency numbers."

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Mortgage delinquencies are generally accompanied by not paying HOA and condo assessments, which is bad news. Banks can survive these situations a lot better than associations that operate on a shoestring budget and have no source of income but assessments.

Steve Bannon Arrested on Superyacht Owned by Chinese Billionaire – Robb Report

Steve Bannon Arrested on Superyacht Owned by Chinese Billionaire – Robb Report

"[Guo] Wengui, an exiled Chinese billionaire, has business ties to Bannon. He was not arrested yesterday, but there are warrants out for his arrest in Beijing, where authorities have accused Wengui of crimes including bribery, kidnapping, money laundering, fraud and rape. He fled to the U.S. in late 2014 and lives in self-imposed exile in Manhattan. He is also a member of President Trump’s Mar-A-Lago club in Florida."

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Guo Wengui is a great example of Privatopia. He is essentially stateless by choice, a citizen of nowhere who moves through a world of private institutions and private wealth, protecting his wealth from taxation and living above the civil and criminal laws of all nations. And here is Steve Bannon, Mr. Nationalism, the architect of Trump's nativist-themed campaign, palling around with him. The hypocrisy is pretty obvious. Most of Trump's anti-government, pro-privatization moves have been scams of some sort. Bannon's fake border wall-building fund raising was a scam. The effort to destroy the US Postal Service is another.

Urban Exiles Are Fueling a Suburban Housing Boom Across the U.S.

Urban Exiles Are Fueling a Suburban Housing Boom Across the U.S.

"In the Covid era, the single-family houses that are the stock in trade for Previti’s Frontier Communities are a hot commodity. Armed with the lowest mortgage rates in history, buyers are increasingly shunning urban centers, settling instead where they can live at a safe distance from their neighbors. “Is this the little runup before everything runs off the rails?” asks Previti, chief executive officer."

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I've seen a number of articles saying the same thing, but I'm holding off on believing it for another year or so. There are too many unknowns about COVID-19, the state of the economy, and the November election.

Top Consumer Home Features During Coronavirus - Realtor.com Economic Research

Top Consumer Home Features During Coronavirus - Realtor.com Economic Research



Some people, notably author Joel Kotkin, argue that COVID-19 is killing cities. I think it is too early to predict that people will move from cities to suburbs to avoid contagion. Pandemics are as old as humanity and so are cities, which are bigger than ever all over the world.

• "Consumers value quiet neighborhoods, outdoor spaces and proximity to grocery stores during pandemic
• Reflecting constraints of quarantines, consumers struggle with confinement, separation from family and friends, and elevated stress
• More space, updated kitchens and home gyms top list of desired changes for current homes
• Having more personal and family time ranks as top benefit of sheltering at home
• Wish list for next homes: bigger houses, more outdoor spaces and updated kitchens"

Fraud & Embezzlement – Community Associations Network

Fraud & Embezzlement – Community Associations Network

I lost track of all the fraud and embezzlement stories, but Community Associations Network has it all! Check it out.

Condo Prices Falling at Trump International Hotel & Tower Chicago

Condo Prices Falling at Trump International Hotel & Tower Chicago

"Prices are down at the Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago. They’re down big-time. Hotel rooms in the 98-story building can be purchased for less than $200,000 these days, though real estate experts might caution you against pulling the trigger: After hotel management fees, taxes and interest on the loan, there likely wouldn’t be much rental income on the room, Gail Lissner managing director at Integra Realty Resources, told the Chicago Sun-Times."

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Heartbreaking. Where's my tiny violin?

PCB woman arrested for allegedly defrauding condo associations

PCB woman arrested for allegedly defrauding condo associations

"PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WJHG) - The Bay County Sheriff’s Office announced Thursday the arrest of a Panama City Beach woman for allegedly defrauding several condo associations. Deputies say 52-year-old Lynn Price has been charged with Ongoing Scheme to Defraud in Excess of $50,000 for her alleged involvement. Bay County Sheriff’s officials say they were made aware of the possible theft back in May when $230,000 was removed from one local condo association’s bank account and deposited into a second association’s account. Deputies tell us the second association began reviewing their bank records and found that money had been removed from their account since at least 2017 by their association manager, Lynn Price."

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A few years ago I tried to keep track of the condo association fraud stories but there were so many I gave up. If you live in a condo or HOA you need to be vigilant about where your money is going and who has access to it.

The Surprising Ways Race Remains a Factor in Mortgage Lending | realtor.com®

The Surprising Ways Race Remains a Factor in Mortgage Lending | realtor.com®

“There are many practices that lenders can engage in to accomplish the same thing as literal redlining," says Evan McKenzie, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "These are very hard to discover. They're practices in a bank that everyone knows they're doing. But it's not stated policy."

Will Trump Save the Suburbs By Cutting a Rule To Stop Discrimination? | realtor.com®

Will Trump Save the Suburbs By Cutting a Rule To Stop Discrimination? | realtor.com®

"Trump "is trying to win back the suburban vote by scaring them and claiming he is up against an opponent who wants to destroy the suburbs through racial and economic integration," says Evan McKenzie, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "He's invoking the idea of the suburbs of the past, that were uniformly white and prosperous."

What is the most private city in the world? | Cities | The Guardian

What is the most private city in the world? | Cities | The Guardian

"It is notoriously difficult to quantify and map the privatisation of space and place. Dubai, which must lay claim to being one of the most privatised cities in the world, is defined by its newness – and it is this newness which is generally an indicator of how private a place is likely to be. This is because today’s dominant economic model is reflected by high-security, privatised plazas which house shopping areas, conference centres and luxury apartments in an environment less reminiscent of the public realm than an airport lounge."

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This is from 2015, but it is fascinating.