Saturday, November 29, 2008

Mumbai photographer: I wish I'd had a gun, not a camera. Armed police would not fire back - World news, News - Belfasttelegraph.co.uk: "But what angered Mr D'Souza almost as much were the masses of armed police hiding in the area who simply refused to shoot back. 'There were armed policemen hiding all around the station but none of them did anything,' he said. 'At one point, I ran up to them and told them to use their weapons. I said, 'Shoot them, they're sitting ducks!' but they just didn't shoot back.'"
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Police are hardly ever much use at the time a crime is happening. Most of the time (unlike in Mumbai), they are not around until after it is all over, so all you can reasonably expect from them is a good investigation. In Mumbai it seems that the police were slow to respond. Maybe they were shocked into passivity. The government eventually brought in the special forces types who did all anybody could expect, to the point where many of them lost their lives.

I agree with all the analysts who say we can expect this type of attack to be repeated, and there is no reason to think it couldn't happen in the US. How hard is it for a terrorist organization to arm ten people with illegal military weapons and send them into a shopping mall, hotel, restaurant, or train station? There are too many soft targets to protect. There is no way to place armed guards in all these places, let alone expect any better than what happened the Mumbai train station.

The only way to have an immediate response in these situations is to have a significant percentage of civilians licensed to carry concealed firearms. Many people blanch at that prospect, but there is no other way, short of turning the nation into a police state. D'Souza said it himself: "I only wish I had a gun rather than a camera."

Citiwire.net » In An Epic Fiscal Storm, New Strategies Sprout

Citiwire.net » In An Epic Fiscal Storm, New Strategies Sprout: "The recession is driving America’s city governments into an epic fiscal storm. Unlike earlier downturns, all three big revenue sources–income, property and sales taxes–are falling together. Cumulative budget shortfalls are already in the tens of billions and rising."
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Neal Pierce has been writing about cities for a long time, and he knows what he is talking about. He says to expect municipalities to make cuts in all services, including police and fire protection.

Luxury condo 'a bully building,' unit owners say | ajc.com

Luxury condo 'a bully building,' unit owners say | ajc.com: "Residents won’t gain control of Aqua’s homeowner association until Tivoli Properties, the developer, sells 80 percent of the units. A condo glut and consumer lack of confidence have slowed sales.

Until that threshold is reached, Tivoli and a company it hired, Fifth Street Management, are in charge.

“When we bought into this we assumed the homeowners would take over pretty quickly,” said Larry Smith, who with his wife bought a two-bedroom unit in September after living in a single-family home in Morningside.

“I feel it’s a bully building,” added Judy Toussel, who lives in a three-bedroom unit. “They refuse any input from a homeowner. A homeowner is nonexistent.”"

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That's not "bully" in the Teddy Roosevelt sense.
Sundown for California
Grim but not apocalyptic piece on the future of California. One main point is that the state has declined because the left wing of the Democratic party has taken over the state and they have run the richest state in the nation right into the ground. The author, Joel Kotkin, is a respected writer and not an ideological conservative. Here is the way he puts it:

"California’s shift to the Democrats had become inexorable and, with the fading of a GOP counterweight, influence within the party flowed to its more radical factions further to the political left. As a result, the state moved decisively away from the economic growth focus of Pat Brown. It seemed determined to wage war against its own economy. As pet social programs, entitlements, and state employee pensions soared, infrastructure spending—the hallmark of the Pat Brown regime and once 20 percent of the state budget—shrank to less than 3 percent.

The educational system, closely aligned with the Democrats in the legislature, accelerated its secular decline. Once full of highly skilled workers, California has become increasingly less so. For example, California ranks second in the percentage of its 65-year-olds holding an associate degree or higher and fifth in those with a bachelor’s degree. But when you look at the 25-to-34 age group, those rankings fade to 30th and 24th.

Instead of reversing these trends, the state legislature decided to spend its money on public employees and impose ever more regulatory burdens on business."

Obama's small donor base image is a myth, new study reveals | Top of the Ticket | Los Angeles Times

Obama's small donor base image is a myth, new study reveals | Top of the Ticket | Los Angeles Times: "Everybody knows how President-elect Barack Obama's amazing campaign money machine was dominated by several million regular folks sending in hard-earned amounts under $200, a real sign of his broadbased grassroots support.

Except, it turns out, that's not really true.

In fact, Obama's base of small donors was almost exactly the same percent as George W. Bush's in 2004 -- Obama had 26% and the great Republican satan 25%. Obviously, this is unacceptable to current popular thinking. But the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute just issued a detailed study of Obama's donor base and its giving. And that's what the Institute found, to its own surprise."

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News from The Associated Press

Tutoring the jocks in luxury at U. of Illinois: "CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) -- At the University of Illinois, being an athlete gets you access to a $6 million facility with oversized leather chairs and Oriental rugs.

But it's not a fancy country club - it's a tutoring center.

The Irwin Academic Services Center helps only about 550 of the school's 37,000 students. And places like this in schools across the country leave critics fuming."

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The longer I spend in academia the more convinced I am that intercollegiate sports are on balance an overwhelmingly negative influence on higher education.

Costumes optional at nudist meal

Costumes optional at nudist meal
If you are interested in a nudist gated resort community, this is the place for you.

Friday, November 28, 2008


The Condo Crunch - washingtonpost.com: "More than two years into the housing slump, the challenges facing Washington's condos are mounting. Sales prices are falling and are not expected to stabilize soon. The number of condo owners not paying their association fees is rising along with foreclosure rates, creating a budget crunch weighing down many communities.

In the face of budget shortfalls, some associations are taking drastic steps to cope, including delaying maintenance and hiking monthly assessments. Others are setting aside part of their budget to cover delinquencies for a time or looking for ways to help owners catch up on payments."

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Slowly the media minds begin to pick up on what is happening. The invisible governments are in trouble all over the nation. State, county, and municipal governments are lining up for bailouts. But nobody is putting the whole picture together. What happens when condos and HOAs are struggling, non-federal governments are staring at looming insolvency, and the federal government is stretched thin to fund wars, corporate bailouts, and those tax cuts Obama promised almost all of us?

GPS guides Norwegian tourists into trouble in Rio - Yahoo! News: "RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) – Three Norwegian tourists came under fire and one was shot after the satellite navigation system in their car guided them straight into one of Rio de Janeiro's most dangerous slums."
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Wrong turn, wrong neighborhood. And apparently the bargain bin GPS system.

Fiscal Focus - Illinois Comptroller's Office

Fiscal Focus - Illinois Comptroller's Office: "Illinois’ state pension systems continue to be seriously underfunded with the latest calculations placing the unfunded liability at over $40 billion. As of June 30, 2006, the five pension systems primarily supported by the state (the Downstate Teachers’ Retirement System (TRS), the State Universities Retirement System (SURS), the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS), the Judges’ Retirement System (JRS), and the General Assembly Retirement System (GARS)) had accumulated $103.1 billion in actuarial liabilities for pension, disability, and death benefits. The systems held assets valued at $62.3 billion leaving $40.7 billion in unfunded obligations, or a funded level of only 60.5%."
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One state--Illinois. $40 billion underfunded. You can find a similar situation in a number of other states.

Pension Tsunami

Pension Tsunami: "That approaching wave of pension debt is bigger than it looks. The purpose of this site is to provide an overview of the multiple pension crises that are about to drown America's taxpayers."
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Here is a weblog that focuses on the impending pension fund debacle.

HOA sues homeowners over signs

HOA sues homeowners over signs: "An election-season dispute between homeowners displaying political signs in their front yards and the Grand View subdivision’s homeowners association, who removed the signs, has spilled into the courts.

Six homeowners in the 198-home subdivision, northeast of Patterson and 28 roads, were served notice this week that the Grand View Homeowners Association has filed a lawsuit against them in Mesa County District Court.

In late October, the association’s president, Tom Lowrey, removed several political signs from front yards. Lowrey said the signs were a violation of the HOA’s covenants, conditions and restrictions. Homeowners, many of whom replaced the signs in their yards after their removal, say they are protected under the Constitution and Colorado state law.

“After the election we took the signs out and thought it was over and done with, and then lo and behold, he served us these papers,” said Jim Rozman, a homeowner in the subdivision. “He (Lowrey) is on a one-man mission, it seems to me.”

The lawsuit requests a judge to award damages to the HOA in the amount of $15 per sign for every day the political signs were displayed in people’s yards."

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Imagine being a judge and having to spend your time on this. What I can't imagine is how an HOA officer could think this is worth a lawsuit.

New land-use law's message: build near transit: "Many California planning and environmental groups are heralding the passage of legislation designed to address global warming by curbing suburban sprawl as a watershed moment, perhaps the state's most important land-use law in more than 30 years."
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SB 375 is supposed to be some sort of sea change in development policy, where California stops "sprawl." Build near transportation hubs, discourage driving, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, save the planet. But here is one little wrinkle: "...there is a firm industry conviction that not all of the projected growth in California can be accommodated in multifamily urban properties, nor do all consumers want to live in such homes."

You got that right. Matter of fact, I suspect that not all that many consumers want to live in "multifamily urban properties," which are better known as condominium and apartment buildings. I'll go a step further and say that among families with kids, the percentage who want to get crammed into an LA condo is pretty small.

This is the left at war with the housing market. Most Americans don't want to live like people do in Hong Kong. There's nothing wrong with high density urban life, but if people don't have the taste for it they will be unhappy living that way, and there is no point premising development policy on unpopular options.

MUNI WATCH: Land-Secured Deals Ailing In Current Economy

MUNI WATCH: Land-Secured Deals Ailing In Current Economy: "NEW YORK --A developer in Florida this year reportedly used $409 million of tax-exempt bonds to build upscale golf course residential communities in 10 counties. The firm suddenly stopped payment on all of them as the battered housing market and tightened bank lending practices in the Sunshine State caught up with it.

The incident marks just one example of how the municipal bond market is feeling the pain and agony accompanying the current downturn, especially as it impacts a sliver of the market loosely known as land-secured deals.

'Tax increment financing deals have not done well in this environment because they are speculating on continued property tax increases,' which are anything but a given in this economy, said Matt Fabian, senior municipal market analyst for Municipal Market Advisors, based in Concord, Mass. 'I think these bonds are going to feel a lot more credit pressure.'"

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This is worth reading to understand how development strategies of municipalities--TIFs, CIDs, etc.--that once were sure things have now turned into potential disasters.

FACTBOX-Ships held by Somali pirates | Reuters
According to this list there are at least 11 ships currently being held by pirates. Pirates. In the year 2008, the world has a pirate problem.

Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede

Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede: "A Wal-Mart worker died after being trampled when hundreds of shoppers smashed through the doors of a Long Island store Friday morning, police and witnesses said.

The 34-year-old worker, employed as an overnight stock clerk, tried to hold back the unruly crowds just after the Valley Stream store opened at 5 a.m.

Witnesses said the surging throngs of shoppers knocked the man down. He fell and was stepped on. As he gasped for air, shoppers ran over and around him."

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Homo economicus at his worst?

Rugged individualism, beer linked

Rugged individualism, beer linked: "In Hollywood lore, the lone cowboy tamed the Wild West with two six-guns by day and drank warm beer with both fists in dusty saloons at night.

That stereotype of the rugged individualist who enjoys tipping back a few might not be so off the mark, according to a newly published study by marketing professors at the University of Texas at San Antonio. They found that places where individualism is valued over the collective good also tend to be places where a lot of beer is consumed."

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So what does this tell us about life in common interest housing developments? Too much beer? Too little beer?

KTNV ABC,Channel 13,Las Vegas,Nevada,News,Weather,Sports,Entertainment,KTNV.com,Action News .:. Mike Tyson Has Run In With Las Vegas Police On Thanksgiving

KTNV ABC,Channel 13,Las Vegas,Nevada,News,Weather,Sports,Entertainment,KTNV.com,Action News .:. Mike Tyson versus the Gate: "Action News Reporter Rikki Cheese was in the southern part of the Valley at Monarch Estates. Sources in the upscale gated community say that around 7:45am, Tyson drove up in a late-model black Escalade. He went to the visitor's gate, but instead of driving through the gate when it opened, he veered off and hit the closed resident's gate. Tyson reportedly backed up and ripped the gate down. Metro was called, and Tyson got a ticket. He was allowed back inside the home he was there to visit."
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They let him in? What is security for?

Thursday, November 27, 2008


Inflation-adjusted U.S. house prices--graphs | Les Jones: "The graph shows the bubble taking off in 1998 and the market peaking in 2005-06. That latter date is generally considered the market peak by many sources.

Note that this graph completely contradicts the chirpy real estate agent advice that “home values always go up!” Home values tend to hold their value relative to inflation, which is no small feat. Your home also gives you a place to keep your stuff dry, which is something you can’t say about T-bills and mutual funds. However, significant appreciation relative to inflation was seen almost entirely in the housing bubble era.


We’re now in an era in which home prices are depreciating. Based on the graph above prices may have to decline an additional inflation-adjusted 15-25% to be back within historical norms."

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Take a look at these two graphs and you will see how the 1998-2005 boom and bust appear in historical context. Astounding.

Barack Obama forced to deny abandoning 'change' amid insider appointments - Times Online

Barack Obama forced to deny abandoning 'change' amid insider appointments - Times Online: "He [Obama] said he would be foolish, at such a “critical time in our history”, to pick people who “had no experience in Washington whatsoever”."
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Can't argue with that.