Celebrity Real Estate Losers - Forbes.com: "LOS ANGELES -

Even Hollywood's rich and famous can't avoid the housing downturn that's sweeping the nation. In Los Angeles, only 4,430 homes were sold in December, down 48% from the previous year. And prices fell 11% to an average $470,000."
------------
I was discussing this situation with my brother yesterday while we sat in a Corner Bakery at Union Station, next to the Chicago River. We grew up in the LA area. We heard nothing but "real estate is always a good investment because it never goes down in value." But both of us think that this law may be broken for good. It is possible that real estate values were so inflated that they are never coming back to where they were--or at least no time in the foreseeable future. Many people used their homes as their only investment property, and now they are looking at a very grim situation.

Zogby polls
I notice CAI has chosen Zogby as the pollster they hire to generate poll results showing how satisfied people are with their community association. I also noticed that Zogby has been wildly inaccurate at key moments of the 2008 election cycle. After Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses, I seem to recall that Zogby told the world that Obama had a 13 point lead in New Hampshire just a couple of days before the election. Clinton won by 3 points. Two days ago I heard on the radio that Zogby had Obama ahead by double digits in California. Clinton won easily.

If a pollster can't accurately measure public opinion a day or two before an election, on a simple "who are you going to vote for" question, how can he possibly be counted on to make a definitive finding on anything else?

Also, the issue is how "satisfied" people are--whatever that means--with an organization that most of them know little or nothing about. And those vague sentiments are wrapped up and inseparable from the way they feel about their neighborhood, their home values, and a dozen other things.

But even aside from all that, the inability of the Zogby firm to accurately measure public opinion in this election cycle is shocking. I could poll my students and ask them to predict the state by state outcomes and maybe produce a better record.

Note, though, that Zogby's (ultimately inaccurate) predictions get huge play in the press before election day, thus influencing the mindset and probably the votes of those who hear about them. For example, in the open New Hampshire primary, there were probably independent voters who decided to vote for McCain rather than Obama because Zogby was saying Obama was far ahead but McCain was in a close race. McCain and Obama were the two top candidates for independents.

FOXNews.com - Florida Orders Sex Offenders Living Under Miami Bridge to Find Permanent Housing - Local News | News Articles | National News | US News: "MIAMI — The state is trying to dissolve a community of sex offenders living under a bridge that includes a gym, kitchen, living room and two dogs.

The men have lived under the Julia Tuttle Causeway for a year. They say limited money and strict local ordinances make it nearly impossible for them to live anywhere else. But state officials are telling them to leave."

------------
I suppose if you have laws and covenants keeping certain people out, logically it would seem that eventually they have nowhere to go. So now these 14 are under a bridge.

FT.com / Companies / Property - Risk of commercial property defaults growing: "There is a growing risk of defaults on loans on commercial property this year, in a trend that could spill over into tumbling values and create more jitters in the credit world, analysts and bankers warn."

-------
A bunch of analysts are expressing the fear that real estate market problems are about to produce the big R.

Homeowners Associations Face More Regulation: "Virginia's General Assembly is said to be considering legislation that would make it harder for just about anybody to get into the business of running an HOA. The Washington Post reports that the Assembly may create a regulatory board to license professional management companies, just like Realtors and other occupations."

Thanks to Fred Pilot for this link.

Is a condo a money pit? - MSN Money: "Dont let the surge in prices fool you: The condo craze is all bubble. Worse, living in a condo can be maddeningly complex -- and costly."

Another voice crying in the wilderness...

Gallery: Inside the Navy's Armed-Robot Labs
So when will the civilian version of the MDARS-E be available for purchase by gated communities?

Calculated Risk: Fitch Concerned about Borrowers 'Walking Away'
"...the apparent willingness of borrowers to ‘walk away’ from mortgage debt has contributed to extraordinarily high levels of early default, which is particularly noticeable in the 2007 vintage mortgages:

This is from the blog Calculated Risk. The mantra from all presidential candidates is to bail out the folks who are getting foreclosed on. I understand this is an election year, so this is to be expectd. And I agree that some people were exploited, especially first time buyers. But the other side of the argument is that a whole bunch of other people--these jumbo loan folks--had their eyes wide open and were counting on prices going up. They knew they were buying more house than they could afford, but they expected to make a killing from the bubble before they ran out of cash. Some of these folks lied about their income and did whatever was needed to qualify. When the anticipated price increase didn't happen--because the bubble finally popped--these folks were the last ones standing in the big game of musical chairs. Suddenly they were overextended, and when prices went down they had negative equity. So, they stop making mortgage payments and walk away from the house after living in it free of charge for six or eight months.

Seems to me that somebody should make the opposing argument: that the government should let the market correct itself. Prices are way too high, making home buying unaffordable for many people. If the government prevents foreclosures (as Hillary Clinton says she wants to do) won't that prevent this correction? Is any candidate making that case? I'm not saying it is the right thing to do. I don't know. But I would welcome a serious discussion about the issue.

William M. Briggs, Statistician » Zombie attacks might increase due to global warming, study shows
Let's face it. The debate is over. The science is there. The question is, are we going to act before it is too late?

I mean for us, not the zombies.

L.A. is set to require pet sterilization - Los Angeles Times: "The Los Angeles City Council voted 10 to 1 Friday to approve mandatory sterilization of most dogs and cats at the age of 4 months or older, and city officials pledged low-key enforcement driven by complaints. The ordinance must get a second reading in a week, but it is expected to pass."

-----------
It seems that there are more and more examples of state and local legislation that intrudes into areas of people's lives that were once beyond the reach of government. So now in LA you can't let your dog or cat reproduce. If you want to buy a pet, you go to a professional breeder or pet store.

But enforcement will be "driven by complaints." I wonder how that works. What do you have to see in order to complain? The mind reels.

Mississippi Pols Seek To Ban Fats - February 1, 2008
This bill would prohibit restaurants from serving obese people. This nanny-state proposal is enough to turn a Marxist into a libertarian.

U.S. 10-city home price drop a record in Nov: S&P | Reuters: "NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell a record 8.4 percent in the year through November, suggesting the housing slump is worsening, according to a Standard & Poor index released on Tuesday."

Midwest Conservative Journal: "The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr Rowan Williams, has called for new laws to protect religious sensibilities that would punish “thoughtless and cruel” styles of speaking."

If you think civil liberties are threatened in the US, take a look at Great Britain. They are seriously considering banning possession of knives. They have laws against blasphemy. People get prosecuted for defending themselves against robbers and burglars. And this bonehead proposal might even get taken seriously by some MP.

How toilet-to-tap programs could help preserve our water supply. - By Eilene Zimmerman - Slate Magazine: "Officials in Orange County, Calif., will attend opening ceremonies today for the world's largest water-purification project, among the first 'toilet-to-tap' systems in America. The Groundwater Replenishment System is designed to take sewage water straight from bathrooms in places like Costa Mesa, Fullerton, and Newport Beach and—after an initial cleansing treatment—send it through $490 million worth of pipes, filters, and tanks for purification. The water then flows into lakes in nearby Anaheim, where it seeps through clay, sand, and rock into aquifers in the groundwater basin. Months later, it will travel back into the homes of half a million Orange County residents, through their kitchen taps and showerheads."

----------------
Don't the dogs of Orange County have a say in this policy? They would seem to be interested parties.

Great Britain: Don't treat the old and unhealthy, say doctors - Telegraph: "Doctors are calling for NHS treatment to be withheld from patients who are too old or who lead unhealthy lives. Smokers, heavy drinkers, the obese and the elderly should be barred from receiving some operations, according to doctors, with most saying the health service cannot afford to provide free care to everyone."
---------------------
Lovely. And we here in the nasty old US are supposed to get warmed up for Hillary-care redux?

US blacks see 'financial apartheid' in subprime crisis: "People of color are more than three times more likely to have subprime loans,' concluded the organization United for a Fair Economy in a recent report which estimated that minorities have seen between 163 billion and 278 billion dollars of their equity go up in smoke since 2000.
With its weakened economy and a large black population more used to renting, Cleveland has become a poster child of the subprime crisis in a country where some 2.1 million borrowers are behind on their mortgage payments.
City officials estimate that foreclosures have swallowed some 70,000 homes and turned entire neighborhoods into ghost towns."

US mortgage crisis creates ghost town: "The streets are empty. Trash rustles down the road past rusted barbecues, abandoned furniture, sagging homes and gardens turned to weed.
This is Shaker Heights, a suburb of Cleveland and a town ravaged by the subprime mortgage crisis roiling the United States.
Faded 'for sale' signs sit in front of deserted houses. The residents are gone, either in search of new jobs after the factories shut down, or in shame after being evicted for missing their mortgage payments"

----------------
This is amazing. Shaker Heights is one of the few suburbs that has maintained stable racial integration since the 1960s. It has always been a nice middle class suburb. If this can happen in Shaker Heights...

San Jose Mercury News - Newport Beach homeowners association battling artificial lawns: "NEWPORT BEACH, Calif.—There's a turf war in Newport Beach.

Artificial lawns are in the cross hairs of the Newport Hills Community Association, which is threatening steep fines and court action if residents don't rip out the pseudo grass.

Connie Hollstein and two other homeowners paid $10,000 each for fake grass, which is becoming an increasingly popular method for saving water and avoiding the upkeep of maintaining natural sod.

Water officials say synthetic turf can save a homeowner more than 20,000 gallons of water each year.

Resident Al Presnell got an association letter saying the synthetic turf 'detracts from the beauty and attractiveness of the surrounding area.'"

Unhappy home buyer, feeling misled on price, sues agent: "CARLSBAD, Calif. -- Marty Ummel believes she paid too much for her house. So do millions of other people who bought at the peak of the housing boom. What makes Ummel different is that she is suing her agent, saying it was all his fault."


Maybe next somebody will sue for not telling them their HOA was dysfunctional. Hey, what happened to caveat emptor?

Goat Wandering Loose Around Condo Complex - New Hampshire News Story - WMUR Manchester
Does he pay his assessments?