Reflections on recent postsIf you look over the recent posts here, you can see that the situation facing homeowners is troubling on a number of fronts.
1. Credit is tight, property values are weak, and it is harder than at any time in the recent past to borrow money or sell--at least, for a lot of people.
2. Owners who are in financial trouble with their homes aren't paying assessments, and neither are the banks when they foreclose. That means associations are hurting financially. That in turn means the solvent owners have to pay for those who are not paying.
3. And the falling property values are reducing municipal tax revenues, which is hitting municipalities and of course school districts and other units of local government.
4. The tax resistance of the average voter has to be at an all-time high. That means voters who have to approve tax increases (due to tax cap legislation in many states) will not want to bail out local governments through tax increases.
5. But we are in an election year where the Democrats figure to win big across the board, due to Bush having thoroughly discredited the Republican party. It looks like there will be gains for the Democrats in the House and Senate and in many state legislatures, and the presidential race currently favors the Democrats (although that could change quickly). The Dems in Congress, and of course Obama, have a host of costly programs in mind that will require substantial federal tax increases. Increasing taxes in the middle of an economic slowdown is bad medicine, but the voters have nothing to say about it after Election Day. If the Dems want to do it, that's that.
6. The cost of college education is going up, up, and up. So is the cost of health care. And I could go on. But pay is not going up, up, and up.
What does this all add up to? I realize the economy will turn around at some point, but the next three or four years or so should be interesting to say the least.
I think we are going to see increased conflict over taxing and spending at the local government level. I think the solvency of CIDs is going to become an issue (I have been predicting this for a long time, but now it is on the horizon). And I expect all sorts of demands for state and federal assistance for public and private local governments. But my guess is that the home-owning middle class is going to be expected to solve its own problems for the most part. As a member of that group, I'm not entirely happy with that conclusion, so please show me where I'm wrong.